The Role of Backdoor Diplomacy in Uganda’s Diplomatic Standoffs

Foreign policy experts underscore the role of backdoor diplomacy in resolving diplomatic standoffs that pose high reputational risks to Uganda. With recent sanctions imposed on Speaker of Parliament Anita Among by the UK and the US, the importance of discreet negotiations has never been more critical.

Impact of Sanctions on Uganda

Speaker Anita Among was sanctioned by the UK on April 30, resulting in an asset freeze and travel ban on Uganda’s third highest-ranked official. This move, followed by similar sanctions from the US, raises questions about Uganda’s ability to secure funding from these countries. With the Speaker sanctioned, Uganda’s position in the global power play is further complicated.

Economic Consequences

The economic implications of these sanctions are significant. Prof. Ahmed Al Hajji points out that Uganda’s trade balance with the US shifted from a goods trade surplus of $75 million in 2021 to a goods trade deficit of $7 million in 2022. Similarly, Uganda’s trade balance with the UK ended in a goods surplus of 42 million Euros in 2023. These shifts highlight the delicate nature of Uganda’s economic relations with powerful nations.

The Role of Backdoor Diplomacy

In such a context, backdoor diplomacy becomes crucial. Silver Kayondo, a Foreign Direct Investment lawyer, suggests that should the European Union also impose targeted sanctions, Ugandan firms doing business with European entities will face increased scrutiny. Enhanced due diligence from procurement to payments will become the norm, making backdoor diplomacy essential to mitigate these effects.

Potential Countermeasures

Legal experts discuss several countermeasures available to Uganda, including expelling diplomats from sanctioning countries, issuing counter sanctions, imposing trade restrictions, and even withdrawing from joint missions. However, these actions could have disastrous consequences for Uganda’s international relations and economy.

Immediate Gestures for Resolution

Kayondo suggests immediate gestures Kampala can make to Washington DC, such as unblocking Facebook/Meta and approving Starlink’s pending license application. These actions could demonstrate goodwill and potentially ease tensions, illustrating how backdoor diplomacy can create opportunities for resolution.

In conclusion, Uganda’s recent diplomatic challenges underscore the importance of backdoor diplomacy in maintaining international relations and economic stability. While sanctions and their economic implications pose significant challenges, discreet negotiations and strategic gestures can help mitigate these effects and foster better relations.